Despite four indictments that include charges of racketeering, conspiracy and attempting to reverse the last presidential election, former President Donald Trump is nearly even with President Joe Biden heading into Michigan’s next presidential election.
That’s according to a poll by EPIC-MRA, a Lansing-based nonpartisan firm that surveyed 600 active and likely 2024 voters Aug. 6-11. Biden leads Trump by 1 percentage point — 46% to 45% — in a hypothetical matchup when including the small number of voters who are only leaning toward each candidate.
Among voters certain of their choice, Biden leads Trump 43% to 40%. Undecideds made up 9% of the poll, which is a representative sample Michigan’s demographic makeup.
“Biden is running, I think, weaker than he should be in some areas,” EPIC-MRA president Bernie Porn told MLive. “And Donald Trump, actually, even with all of the indictments, he was at 34% favorability in our last survey and now he’s at 37.”
When EPIC-MRA last polled Michigan voters in June, Biden and Trump were tied at 44%. Trump’s base has stayed loyal, but it’s not enough at the moment.
“He loses among independent voters by 9 points against Biden,” Porn said. “But Biden would have a larger lead if he did better in a few demographic groups” like union members and Black voters.
With a 4-point margin of error, the August poll shows Trump is well within range of winning Michigan. This error margin essentially means one can hypothetically expect the election to yield a result between these extremes:
- Biden 50/Trump 41 (+4 more for Biden, -4 fewer for Trump)
- Trump 49/Biden 42 (+4 more for Trump, -4 fewer for Biden)
Trump and Biden are considered the far-and-away frontrunners for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. The latest national polling has Trump with about a 40-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Biden with about a 50-point advantage over lawyer and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
As for how Michiganders plan to vote, 62% plan to vote in person and 33% plan to vote absentee, according to the poll. Last November, 58% voted in person and 42% absentee.
Voters will have a new in-person option next year, when early voting centers will be open for at least nine days in the primary and general elections. Voters will be able to walk in before Election Day and cast a ballot, and absentee voters can put their ballots into a machine on site.
Go deeper: Here are 6 ways voting in Michigan will be different in 2024
Also in EPIC-MRA’s August poll, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has a 51-to-46% approval rating, something that has held mostly steady during the Democrat’s time in office. They disapprove of Biden, however, 64% to 34%.
Michigan’s economy got worse marks than Whitmer. 35% of poll respondents said it’s gotten worse over the past several months, while 22% said it has improved and 39% said it has remained about the same.
“Improved” gained 5 points since the June poll, however.
In the race for U.S. Senate, where Lansing congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is considered the Democratic frontrunner, EPIC-MRA has been polling hypothetical matchups of her and Republicans.
The August poll has Slotkin up 42%-to-37% over former central Michigan congressman Mike Rogers, while the June poll had her edging out former Detroit police chief James Craig, 40% to 39%.
Neither Rogers nor Craig has declared candidacy. Republicans currently running include State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder.
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